What will ethereum be worth in 2021 reddit

It is unlikely that the average staker is running such an optimised setup, so let’s call it 100W all in.

Multiplying this with the 87k validators from before means that home-stakers consume ~1.64 megawatt. Estimating the power consumed by custodial stakers is a bit harder, they run tens of thousands of validator clients with redundancy and backups.

To make life easy, let’s also just assume that they use 100W per 5.5 validators. Based off of the staking infrustructure teams I have spoken to, this is a gross over-estimate. The real answer is something like 50x less (And if you are a custodial staking team consuming more than 5W/ validator hit me up, I’m sure I can help you out).

In total, a Proof-of-Stake Ethereum therefore consumes something on the order of 2.62 megawatt.

What will ethereum be worth in 2021 reddit

That’s more than it’s previous 7 quarters combined.

Ethereum on Track to Settle $6 Trillion in 2021

The data from Messari also hints towards the possibility of Ethereum settling $6 Trillion in transactions by the end of this year. This is based on the assumption that Ethereum’s quarterly transactions continue to stay constant at roughly $1.5 million per quarter, and that other smart contract networks such as BSC, do not chip away at Ethereum’s dominance.

Ethereum is the Most Developed, Decentralized Smart Contract Network – Author Hayes

However, the encroachment of other blockchain’s into Ethereum’s dominance might take a while given the popularity of its several DeFi platforms and NFT marketplaces.

This means that PoS is ~2000x more energy efficient based on the conservative estimates above, which reflects a reduction of at least 99.95% in total energy use.

If energy consumption per-transaction is more your speed, that’s ~35Wh/tx (avg ~60K gas/tx) or about 20 minutes of TV. By contrast, Ethereum PoW uses the equivalent energy of a house for 2.8 days per transaction and Bitcoin consumes 38 house-days worth.

Looking Forward

While Ethereum continues to use PoW for now, that won’t be the case for much longer.
In the past few weeks, we have seen the emergence of the first testnets for The Merge, the name given to the moment Ethereum switches to from PoW to PoS.

As an attacker is likely to have similar hardware, miners must keep large amounts of efficient hardware running to prevent an attacker from out-mining them and all this hardware uses a lot of power.

Under PoW, as the price of ETH and the hashrate are positively correlated. Therefore, as as the price increases, in equilibrium so too does the power consumed by the network.

Under Proof-of-Stake, when the price of ETH increases, the security of the network does too (the value of the ETH at-stake is worth more), but the energy requirements remain unchanged.

Some comparisons

Digiconomist estimates that Ethereum miners currently consume 44.49 TWh per year which works out to 5.13 gigawatt on a continuing basis.

On the plus side, the DeFi space continues to grow and Ethereum continues to be the blockchain that underpins most of it, while the NFT explosion undoubtedly helped Ethereum to record breaking gains this year. However, it’s pretty clear that the next generation of crypto, the metaverse and Web 3.0, will not be built on Ethereum, which is troubling for the project.

Ethereum 2.0, with its deflationary mechanism and transactional overhaul, needs to come quickly in 2022 and be successful almost instantly, otherwise projects currently using Ethereum are likely to seek moves to other platforms due to the transaction fees being imposed on users.

Development

2021 has been a good year for Ethereum development, with August seeing the implementation of EIP-1559, the first major step towards Ethereum 2.0.

Many stakers could have used multiple eth1 addresses, but this largely cancels out against those with redundant setups.

At the time of writing, there are 140,592 validators from 16,405 unique addresses. Obviously this is heavily skewed by exchanges and staking services, so removing them leaves 87,897 validators assumed to be staking from home.
As a sanity check, this implies that the average home-staker runs 5.4 validators which seems like a reasonable estimate to me.

Power Requirements

How much power does it take to run a beacon node (BN), 5.4 validator clients (VC), and an eth1 full-node? Using my personal setup as a base, it’s around 15 watt. Joe Clapis (a Rocket Pool dev) recently ran 10 VCs, a Nimbus BN, and a Geth full node off of a 10Ah USB battery bank for 10 hours, meaning that this setup averaged 5W.

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  • 2021 has seen Ethereum hit all-time highs and carry the NFT boom
  • EIP-1559 also saw the first steps towards EIP-1559
  • However, the metaverse could be developed without it

Ethereum has had one of its most momentous years since its creation in 2015 – it laid down the foundations for Ethereum 2.0, it hit a record high price, and it provided the basis for the NFT boom. Not everything has gone swimmingly however, with the metaverse potentially ignoring it in favor of other blockchains.
In this end of year review we look at how Ethereum has fared in 2021 in three important categories – price, adoption, and development.

Price

Like many coins, Ethereum broke all time highs.

It began the year at $720, a figure that by the end of the year would seem inconceivably low – it raced to $4,400 in May, surpassing this in November when it touched $4,870. Ethereum’s incredible price rise hasn’t just been impressive in dollar terms – it has also been grinding away at its Bitcoin comparative price, starting the year being worth ₿0.03 and ending it closing in on ₿0.09, despite the price crypto market crash in the middle of the year.
This price action against Bitcoin is more important because it shows that Ethereum is digging out more of a market share compared to its illustrious brethren, prompting many to proclaim that the ‘flippening’ could happen in 2021.

  • The Ethereum network has settled $1.5 Trillion in transactions in the first quarter of 2021
  • This amount exceeds the last 7 quarters combined and the highest to date, in a quarter
  • Ethereum could settle $6 Trillion by the end of 2021
  • According to Arthur Hayes, Ethereum is the most developed smart contract network in the blockchain industry
  • The Ethereum network settled a staggering $1.5 Trillion in transactions in the first quarter of 2021. This milestone was highlighted by Ryan Watkins of Messari Research through the following statement and accompanying chart.

    Ethereum settled $1.5 trillion in transactions in Q1 2021.

    This is not on the scale of countries, provinces, or even cities, but that of a small town (around 2100 American homes).

    For reference, Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus on Ethereum currently consumes the energy equivalent of a medium-sized country, but this is actually necessary to keep a PoW chain safe. As the name suggests, PoW reaches consensus based off of which fork has the most “work” done on it.

    There are two ways to increase the rate of “work” being done, increase the efficiency of mining hardware and using more hardware at the same time. To prevent a chain from being successfully attacked, miners must be doing “work” at a rate greater than an attacker could.

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